Monday 27 December 2010

Q4 2011: the next global crisis?

Suck it up.
Have you noticed the price of oil climbing steadily upwards again? Even though we are barely out of the last global recession, we are at a 26 month price peak and prices have risen by about 15% in the past 8 weeks alone.
High oil prices were one of the major factors behind the last global crisis, the difference this time is that the price is not being driven by speculators so much as by the fact that producer nations are signalling that there are no plans to increase output. Maybe they are simply profiteering, maybe as we edge ever closer to peak oil they are unable to increase output, who knows, but one thing is for sure: we are approaching the point when oil will become too expensive for current driving behaviour. The oil price cycles are coming thick and fast and after each one the price 'stabilises' at a point higher than for the previous cycle.

According to the former president of Shell USA, 2012 will see US$5 per gallon of gasoline. According to JBC Energy 'the largest effect of an oil price shock on the economy occurs around three to four quarters after the price spike'. Watch out this time next year then and remember to order your electric car sometime soon.