1. Range anxiety comes and goes: the obsession with range anxiety will be overcome first as motorists realise that a range of 100 miles (and 50 miles under extreme conditions) is more than sufficient for everyday use; secondly, as range increases thanks to efficiency improvements and new battery chemistries are announced for future models; and thirdly as recharging infrastructure appears as an extended journey facilitator
2. The second car becomes the first car: for many motorists the EV will become the car of choice for the daily commute, effectively promoting it from second to first position in terms of frequency of use.
3. Range available maps become super-popular: my favourite thing about the Nissan Leaf is its range available map in the centre console. At a glance drivers can see the one way and return distances available to the driver visually mapped, based on the current state of charge. The most useful of tools an EV can offer.
4. Apps for EVs: electric vehicles are made for telematics applications - and vice versa. As motorists interact with their electric car through their mobile devices we will see a step change in the number and type of applications developed for electric vehicles, from service and safety apps to information and entertainment apps. Now if Apple would only launch an EV...
5. Seamless connectivity: not sure of we will see this in 2011 or later but the concept that your connectivity to the world is seamless as you move from home to EV to work place is next up. With 42 million media tablets such as the i-Pad already sold, in-car docking stations for media tablets in EVs should be the next big thing. Always-on never felt so good (or bad).
6. Charge at work: much of the current charging debate is with on-street charging stations but since 80% to 90% of all charging of electric cars will be done at home, the next big need is for charging at the work place. In addition to effectively doubling the daily range available for employees with EVs, charging at work facilities will enable those people who are unable to charge at home (because they live in a flat without dedicated parking) to enter the EV market.
7. Usership instead of ownership: we will see the beginning of the end of the desire to own or lease our cars as the possibility of using them only when we need them (and so not paying for them when we don't) trends beyond car clubs as they exist currently, led by the Paris AutoLib project. 3,000 electric cars stationed at 1,000 self-service hire points across the city and its suburbs.
8. Electric car prototypes will look different, not the same as conventional cars: for the next few years, those who buy an EV are making a big personal social statement - I am a Leader of Change. To make it easily and powerfully they want to stand out from the crowd, not disappear into it.
9. V2G: we will see the first electric vehicles emerge that are Vehicle To Grid enabled, meaning they are capable of returning stored energy to the electric grid. For some this could mean that EVs are effectively free of charge from an operational perspective as they take advantage of generous feed-in tariffs - if you live in the right place.
10. Mergers, acquisitions, closures: as so many EV start-ups have discovered to their cost, it is difficult and expensive to get into automotive manufacturing, particularly if it is with electric vehicles. In an already crowded market place there is room for maybe 2 or 3 new entrants, the rest will either sell, merge, or fade away.
