Will EVs overtake ICE at the start of the next decade?

No Overtaking until 2020

At the Reuters Auto Summit held this week, Prabhakar Patil, the chief executive of LG Chem unit Compact Power, said that he expects and has targeted the price of lithium ion batteries to fall by a factor of 2 to 4 i.e. by 50% to 75% over the next five to ten years. This means that electric vehicles will by the end of the decade become as cheap or cheaper than conventional ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles to manufacture. As the current range of 100 miles is sufficient for 99% of all journeys, and as the true environmental cost of ICE vehicles and hybrids becomes known, then it is not unreasonable to expect that by the start of the next decade we will see electric begin to overtake ICE and hybrid as the predominant drivetrain in many vehicle segments. Note: this view is at odds with the prevailing wisdom!