Wednesday, 10 November 2010

What is the scale of the transport challenge?

Houston we have a problem.
1. There are too many cars. Today we are approaching 1 billion vehicles worldwide. We will reach 2 billion within the next 10 to 20 years.
2. The distance travelled by cars is growing rapidly. The total distance travelled by all motor traffic is increasing by approximately 100 billion km per decade.
3. We need a reduction in CO2 emissions of 80% to 90%. The UK target for 2050 is 2.1 to 2.4 tonnes CO2 per head. But an average new car today produces 160 g CO2 / km, which driven at an average of 15,000 km / year emits a total of 2.4 tonnes per year.
4. Demand for oil will soon exceed supply, so we are running out of time. Transport already uses 53% of all the oil produced. There is not enough oil being produced to meet the growth projections of vehicles and we will almost certainly reach 'peak oil' within a decade (the point at which rising demand for oil exceeds the available supply).