An overview of electric vehicle trends and drivers

I collect stats from just about every source and to be honest getting accurate ones can be difficult to find. So, with a proviso that no-one should use these numbers as gospel, here is my take on the state of the EV market, with a particular interest in the UK.

Analysis

1.    The global EV market is growing everywhere except China (which is a temporary blip).

Country / Continent	2011	2012	2013	% growth vs 2012
USA	10064	14251	47694	235%
Europe	9400	16942	33,735	99%
Japan	13449	15897	16565	4%
China	8159	12085	9176	-24%
Total	41072	59175	107170	81%

A new report from Navigant Research published this month, “Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts”, forecasts that by 2022 there will be more than 35 million EVs on roads worldwide, up from approximately 750,000 in 2013.

According to Navigant, worldwide revenue from EVSE sales (Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment, namely charge points) will grow from $567 million annually in 2013 to $5.8 billion in 2022.

2.    The UK currently ranks 5^th in Europe for EV sales.

Country	2011	2012	2013
France	2097	5663	8851
Norway	1870	3950	7882
Germany	2224	1890	6205
Netherlands	592	785	3476
UK	1318	2237	3367
Others Europe	3387	3906	5754
TOTAL	11488	18431	33785

There are approximately 7,000 electric cars on the road in the UK, including 1,000 G-Wiz quadricycles.

3.    The Nissan Leaf is the world’s best-selling electric car. Having just passed 100,000 sales globally, the Nissan Leaf is the world’s best-selling EV, accounting for 5 out of every 10 electric cars sold to date. The Tesla Model S is in 2^nd place, offering a range of 300 miles and Porsche-like performance. The forthcoming Audi Q8 E-Tron is reported to have a range of 375 miles per charge.

Models	2013 global sales	% 2013 global market
Nissan Leaf	46,250	43%
Telsa Model S	21,145	20%
Mitsubishi iMiev	19,200	18%
Renault Zoe	8,888	8%
Renault Kangoo	5,900	6%
Others	5,787	5%
Total	1,07,170	100%

Models	2013 EU sales	% EU market
Nissan Leaf	10,720	32%
Renault Zoe	8,150	24%
Renault Kangoo	5,386	16%
Renault Twizy	2,841	8%
Telsa Model S	2,650	8%
Smart Fortwo ED	2,457	7%
Mitsubishi iMiev	815	2%
Others	766	0.02
Total	33,785	100%

IHS Automotive expects global production of EVs and plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) to rise 67% in 2014. That compares with just a 3.6% increase in the production of all vehicles globally. According to HIS Automotive this means more than 403,000 electrified vehicles are expected to be built in 2014, up from 242,000 in 2013. The 2013 figure itself was a 44% rise from a year earlier.

4.    The UK new car market grew 9.9% in 2013. The UK market was the strongest in Europe for new car sales in 2013, a scenario that may continue over the next few years as the UK economy powers out of recession and confidence returns. It is reasonable to expect that this will be reflected in the growth of sales of electric vehicles, particularly in affluent areas such as London.

5.    The UK EV market grew 70% in 2013. Whilst the UK EV market grew at 70% per year last year, EVs represent less than 1% of UK new car sales.

6.    There is considerable upside for growth of the UK EV market beyond the official forecast, as evidenced by other European countries. The UK figure of <1% compares to 5.5% in Norway and 5.7% in the Netherlands (year on year increases of 129% and 338% respectively). The latest monthly figures show an astonishing increase to 12% in Norway and 25% in the Netherlands.

This shows the rapid growth potential for EVs in the UK if/when the conditions are right for such growth. A number of factors will drive this growth (see below).

7.    The official UK forecast is for 1.2m EVs in the UK by 2020. There are currently approximately 7,000 electric vehicles in the UK, so OLEV’s conservative June 2011 forecast is for growth from <1% to 6% of new car sales by 2020, representing an EV car parc of 1.2m vehicles. For comparison, both Norway and the Netherlands are already at the 6% figure.

8.    The reduction in battery prices will bring the purchase price of EVs to price parity with ICE vehicles and so will drive EV adoption. Lithium-ion battery prices are dropping at 20% + per year and by 2017 EVs are forecast to make EVs cheaper to purchase than their equivalent ICE (internal combustion engine) model. At this point we might reasonably expect to see the market tipping point and more of a hockey-stick-like growth curve.

9.    European emissions standards are tightening, leading to more EVs being introduced. The availability of new EV models will drive EV adoption. The 2013 Renault Zoe has been hailed as a breakthrough in affordable EVs. In the short term (2014 – 2016) we will see strong European / UK sales from the BMW i3 together with several other new marques of pure electric and plug-in hybrids such as the Audi A3 E-Tron PHEV, Mercedes-Benz B-Class EV and Volkswagen E-Up EV offering a wider range of price points, styling and performance options.

10.The availability of finance for both business and private purchases will drive EV adoption. Until 2013 it was difficult to obtain finance for electric vehicles, primarily because of the uncertainty surrounding battery reliability. As confidence improves, and with the option of battery rental distinct from vehicle leasing, the purchase price and TCO (total cost of ownership) of electric vehicles has come down and fleets can more easily access the EV market.

11.The London Congestion Charge will drive EV adoption.  Since the summer of 2013 only vehicles below 75g CO2/km are not subject to the London Congestion charge, effectively meaning that only electric vehicles are exempt. The proposed increase from £10 to £11.50 per day will further stimulate demand for electric vehicles from those living outside the Congestion Zone.

12.The installation of more than 500 rapid charge stations across the UK from 2014-2016 – and 20 in Westminster – will drive EV adoption. EV manufacturers believe that the lack of a (rapid) public charging network is the primary barrier to unlocking the EV market, an issue that is being addressed over the next 2-3 years with the installation of a UK network of rapid charge stations. This will enable EVs to undertake extended range journeys and will increase the availability of electric vehicles by reducing the time spent recharging. This latter point is particularly important for fleets (many of which are cars driven by business people) and commercial vehicles including delivery van and taxis.

13.The UK government is driving EV adoption. The government is investing £9m to support EV charging infrastructure through the Office for Low Emission Vehicles. In addition, they are funding a £2.5m campaign called Go Ultra Low www.goultralow.com to promote electric vehicles and the growing (5,000+) public network of normal and fast charge points in the UK via a collaboration with manufacturers BMW, Nissan, Renault Toyota and Vauxhall.

14.The emergence of national charging networks will drive EV adoption. The expansion of Charge Your Car, the UK’s first PAYG charging network from a regional into a national network will provide much needed interoperability between regional charging networks and visibility of charge points as part of a single national network. In addition, Ecotricity’s ‘Electric Highway’ now comprises more than 200 rapid chargers across the UK, making it possible for the first time to drive the length of the UK in an electric vehicle in a single day. In addition the EU has tabled a motion for the mandatory installation of more than 90,000 charge points in the UK by 2020 as part of a EU-wide initiative to support EV adoption. These growing charging networks will provide further confidence to existing and potential owners of EVs by overcoming the issue of range anxiety.

15. The emergence of a single European charging standard will drive EV adoption. The decision by the EU to adopt the Combined Charging System ‘CCS Combo’ protocol will provide certainty for electric vehicle and charge point manufacturers, enabling them to reduce costs. It will also provide simplicity and certainty for buyers of EVs.

16. Formula E will drive EV adoption. The world’s first world electric racing championship commences in 2015. London is one of the 10 cities where races will be held around the world, and the races will be heavily promoted and televised.