W Europe 2013 EV sales

EVSE Will Reach $5.8 Billion by 2022

According to Navigant Research, global sales of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) rose by more than 55 percent in 2013, and the market is expected to continue to grow at a steady pace over the next nine years. 

That expansion has led to solid growth in the market for electric vehicle charging equipment (better known in the industry as electric vehicle supply equipment, or EVSE) – growth that is expected to accelerate over the next several years. 

According to a recent report from Navigant Research, worldwide revenue from EVSE sales will grow from $567 million annually in 2013 to $5.8 billion in 2022.

“The market for EV charging has seen an imbalance between the relatively high number of available chargers and the number of vehicles on the road, but that ratio is moving toward equilibrium and in some markets, charging demand outstrips supply,” says Lisa Jerram, senior research analyst with Navigant Research. “The market has seen a wealth of offerings, including a wider range of EVSE at varying power levels and price points, and this diversity will help drive demand as consumers' choices increase.”

The EVSE market is divided between residential (intended for use by a single person or family) and commercial equipment, which includes workplace, public, and private facilities. The market will see higher demand for residential units than for commercial units through 2014, according to the report, as early PEV buyers are more likely to own their own homes. As the PEV market grows, it will reach a broader base of consumers living in multi-family dwellings, leading to greater growth in the sales of commercial EVSE for private use.

More charging points for electric cars in North West UK

More than £900,000 in UK government funding will be provided to boost the number of charging points for electric cars in the North West, the Deputy Prime Minister announced today.

Nick Clegg pledged to invest more than £9 million across the country as he launched a joint campaign with car manufacturers to promote the benefits of ultra low emission vehicles.

Under the plans, Cumbria County Council will receive £562,500 for new charging points, Cheshire East Council will receive £302,183, Hyndburn Borough Council will receive £26,250 and Pendle Borough Council will receive £10,000.

Northern Rail, which runs rail services across the North of England, has also been allocated £322,500 to install charging points in train station car parks.

Last year, Merseytravel also received funding from the Office for Low Emission Vehicles for 126 charging points across Merseyside and West Cheshire, including at some train stations.

The funding is part of a significant push to create an interoperable network of charge points across the UK over the next 2-3 years.

Norway - more facts and figures

According to The Guardian newspaper, Norway's traffic jams are becoming the cleanest and quietest in the world due to a flood of drivers buying electric cars which now power around the country's cities on hydro-electricity, competing for free charging points.

For three months at the end of 2013, the luxury electric sports car the Tesla Model S and Nissan Leaf family electric car were the best-selling models among all cars sold in the country, beating popular and conventionally-fuelled cars including the VW Golf.

The latest figures suggest that over 21,000 electric vehicles (EVs) are now registered in the country of 5 million people with sales running at over 1,200 a month, or over 10% of all sales. That compares with a total of around 70,000 EVs registered in the US with a population of 313 m, and just 5,000 (note: it is 7,500 actually) in the UK with a population of 63m.

Dealers expect there to be more in Oslo than in Los Angeles and San Francisco combined within a year.The Nordic rush for zero-emission vehicles, which have a range of just over 100 miles in the case of the Leaf, is less inspired by concern for the environment than for the chance of free commuting in the bus lane and generous incentives, says the industry.

Battery-powered cars in the world's fourth richest country are not just exempt from high rates of purchase tax, and VAT, but pay no road and ferry tolls or parking fees, cost less to insure and can be charged up for free electricity from thousands of points. Local government will also subsidise the installation of charging points in homes. 

Research suggests the subsidies could be worth nearly £5,000 a year per car.

"You can buy a Nissan leaf for 280,000 NOK (£26,500) which compares with 300,000 (£29,400) for a VW Golf. Over 10,000 km, it costs about 1,800 Nok (£176) to run, but the same for a petrol car would be 8,000 Nok (£784). On top of that I save save 35 Nok (£3.20) a day on tolls but some people are saving far more," says Snorre Sletvold, president of the Norwegian electric vehicle association.

"We needed a new family car. We got a Nissan Leaf because it was really cheap and we did not want to pollute the air", says Maren Esmark, ceo of Friends of the Earth Norway.

 "We felt we were supporting the technology but the reason why most Norwegians are buying them is because they have a lot of money and can afford two cars, and because they can use them in the bus lanes."At the start we got comments like 'do you really think you can save the envirornment with that car?' but now they are so common that they are not noticed." 

By far the two most popular are the Sunderland-built Nissan Leaf which was Norway's third best-selling passenger car last year, selling over 3,500, and the more expensive Tesla Model S which was the country's best-selling car in September and December. Volkswagen and BMW are now rushing to introduce their versions of electric cars.

"A boatload of Nissan Leafs arrives in Norway each week and is sold almost immediately. It is astonishing. We did not expect this. Electric cars started as an Oslo phenomenom but they are now selling all over Norway. By the end of February we expect to be the first country in the world where 1 in 100 cars on the road are electric," said Sletvold.

But, says the government, the Norwegian love affair with electric cars may end sooner than expected. Incentives will be withdrawn, or reconsidered, when 50,000 zero emission cars have been registered or come 2018, whichever is the earliest. At the current rate of sales, the 50,000 figure could be reached within 18 months.

Besides, the allure of quick commuting and free fuel is wearing thin as they become more popular and defeat the purpose for which people bought them. EVs are now so popular that they dominate the bus lanes into Oslo, making up to 75% of the vehicles allowed in them. In addition, it's getting harder and harder to find unoccupied public charging facilities.

An overview of electric vehicle trends and drivers

I collect stats from just about every source and to be honest getting accurate ones can be difficult to find. So, with a proviso that no-one should use these numbers as gospel, here is my take on the state of the EV market, with a particular interest in the UK.

Analysis

1.    The global EV market is growing everywhere except China (which is a temporary blip).

Country / Continent	2011	2012	2013	% growth vs 2012
USA	10064	14251	47694	235%
Europe	9400	16942	33,735	99%
Japan	13449	15897	16565	4%
China	8159	12085	9176	-24%
Total	41072	59175	107170	81%

A new report from Navigant Research published this month, “Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts”, forecasts that by 2022 there will be more than 35 million EVs on roads worldwide, up from approximately 750,000 in 2013.

According to Navigant, worldwide revenue from EVSE sales (Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment, namely charge points) will grow from $567 million annually in 2013 to $5.8 billion in 2022.

2.    The UK currently ranks 5^th in Europe for EV sales.

Country	2011	2012	2013
France	2097	5663	8851
Norway	1870	3950	7882
Germany	2224	1890	6205
Netherlands	592	785	3476
UK	1318	2237	3367
Others Europe	3387	3906	5754
TOTAL	11488	18431	33785

There are approximately 7,000 electric cars on the road in the UK, including 1,000 G-Wiz quadricycles.

3.    The Nissan Leaf is the world’s best-selling electric car. Having just passed 100,000 sales globally, the Nissan Leaf is the world’s best-selling EV, accounting for 5 out of every 10 electric cars sold to date. The Tesla Model S is in 2^nd place, offering a range of 300 miles and Porsche-like performance. The forthcoming Audi Q8 E-Tron is reported to have a range of 375 miles per charge.

Models	2013 global sales	% 2013 global market
Nissan Leaf	46,250	43%
Telsa Model S	21,145	20%
Mitsubishi iMiev	19,200	18%
Renault Zoe	8,888	8%
Renault Kangoo	5,900	6%
Others	5,787	5%
Total	1,07,170	100%

Models	2013 EU sales	% EU market
Nissan Leaf	10,720	32%
Renault Zoe	8,150	24%
Renault Kangoo	5,386	16%
Renault Twizy	2,841	8%
Telsa Model S	2,650	8%
Smart Fortwo ED	2,457	7%
Mitsubishi iMiev	815	2%
Others	766	0.02
Total	33,785	100%

IHS Automotive expects global production of EVs and plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) to rise 67% in 2014. That compares with just a 3.6% increase in the production of all vehicles globally. According to HIS Automotive this means more than 403,000 electrified vehicles are expected to be built in 2014, up from 242,000 in 2013. The 2013 figure itself was a 44% rise from a year earlier.

4.    The UK new car market grew 9.9% in 2013. The UK market was the strongest in Europe for new car sales in 2013, a scenario that may continue over the next few years as the UK economy powers out of recession and confidence returns. It is reasonable to expect that this will be reflected in the growth of sales of electric vehicles, particularly in affluent areas such as London.

5.    The UK EV market grew 70% in 2013. Whilst the UK EV market grew at 70% per year last year, EVs represent less than 1% of UK new car sales.

6.    There is considerable upside for growth of the UK EV market beyond the official forecast, as evidenced by other European countries. The UK figure of <1% compares to 5.5% in Norway and 5.7% in the Netherlands (year on year increases of 129% and 338% respectively). The latest monthly figures show an astonishing increase to 12% in Norway and 25% in the Netherlands.

This shows the rapid growth potential for EVs in the UK if/when the conditions are right for such growth. A number of factors will drive this growth (see below).

7.    The official UK forecast is for 1.2m EVs in the UK by 2020. There are currently approximately 7,000 electric vehicles in the UK, so OLEV’s conservative June 2011 forecast is for growth from <1% to 6% of new car sales by 2020, representing an EV car parc of 1.2m vehicles. For comparison, both Norway and the Netherlands are already at the 6% figure.

8.    The reduction in battery prices will bring the purchase price of EVs to price parity with ICE vehicles and so will drive EV adoption. Lithium-ion battery prices are dropping at 20% + per year and by 2017 EVs are forecast to make EVs cheaper to purchase than their equivalent ICE (internal combustion engine) model. At this point we might reasonably expect to see the market tipping point and more of a hockey-stick-like growth curve.

9.    European emissions standards are tightening, leading to more EVs being introduced. The availability of new EV models will drive EV adoption. The 2013 Renault Zoe has been hailed as a breakthrough in affordable EVs. In the short term (2014 – 2016) we will see strong European / UK sales from the BMW i3 together with several other new marques of pure electric and plug-in hybrids such as the Audi A3 E-Tron PHEV, Mercedes-Benz B-Class EV and Volkswagen E-Up EV offering a wider range of price points, styling and performance options.

10.The availability of finance for both business and private purchases will drive EV adoption. Until 2013 it was difficult to obtain finance for electric vehicles, primarily because of the uncertainty surrounding battery reliability. As confidence improves, and with the option of battery rental distinct from vehicle leasing, the purchase price and TCO (total cost of ownership) of electric vehicles has come down and fleets can more easily access the EV market.

11.The London Congestion Charge will drive EV adoption.  Since the summer of 2013 only vehicles below 75g CO2/km are not subject to the London Congestion charge, effectively meaning that only electric vehicles are exempt. The proposed increase from £10 to £11.50 per day will further stimulate demand for electric vehicles from those living outside the Congestion Zone.

12.The installation of more than 500 rapid charge stations across the UK from 2014-2016 – and 20 in Westminster – will drive EV adoption. EV manufacturers believe that the lack of a (rapid) public charging network is the primary barrier to unlocking the EV market, an issue that is being addressed over the next 2-3 years with the installation of a UK network of rapid charge stations. This will enable EVs to undertake extended range journeys and will increase the availability of electric vehicles by reducing the time spent recharging. This latter point is particularly important for fleets (many of which are cars driven by business people) and commercial vehicles including delivery van and taxis.

13.The UK government is driving EV adoption. The government is investing £9m to support EV charging infrastructure through the Office for Low Emission Vehicles. In addition, they are funding a £2.5m campaign called Go Ultra Low www.goultralow.com to promote electric vehicles and the growing (5,000+) public network of normal and fast charge points in the UK via a collaboration with manufacturers BMW, Nissan, Renault Toyota and Vauxhall.

14.The emergence of national charging networks will drive EV adoption. The expansion of Charge Your Car, the UK’s first PAYG charging network from a regional into a national network will provide much needed interoperability between regional charging networks and visibility of charge points as part of a single national network. In addition, Ecotricity’s ‘Electric Highway’ now comprises more than 200 rapid chargers across the UK, making it possible for the first time to drive the length of the UK in an electric vehicle in a single day. In addition the EU has tabled a motion for the mandatory installation of more than 90,000 charge points in the UK by 2020 as part of a EU-wide initiative to support EV adoption. These growing charging networks will provide further confidence to existing and potential owners of EVs by overcoming the issue of range anxiety.

15. The emergence of a single European charging standard will drive EV adoption. The decision by the EU to adopt the Combined Charging System ‘CCS Combo’ protocol will provide certainty for electric vehicle and charge point manufacturers, enabling them to reduce costs. It will also provide simplicity and certainty for buyers of EVs.

16. Formula E will drive EV adoption. The world’s first world electric racing championship commences in 2015. London is one of the 10 cities where races will be held around the world, and the races will be heavily promoted and televised.