OK, time for some crystal ball gazing, so here are my top predictions for the plug-in vehicle market for 2012 (I have cut and pasted my 2011 predictions underneath for comparison):
2012 predictions:
- The market continues to grow slowly like it did in 2011 - the problem is price, lack of recharging infrastructure and a lack of good looking plug-in vehicles that are also affordable. Not much is going to change in this respect in 2012 although Renault are going to give it a really good go.
- It's all about fleets - two thirds (and perhaps even more) of the plug-in vehicles purchased in 2012 will be bought by fleets. The market will continue to be driven by companies and their CSR / carbon reduction policies.
- The Renault Fluence will replace the Nissan Leaf as the EV poster boy - the more conventional looks, the more realistic price, the removal of battery risk (via battery leasing), this is what the fleet market wants.
- Say hello to white van EV man - the introduction of the affordable Renault Kangoo will provide choice against the Ford Transit Connect EV and between them they will kick start the electric LCV market. Particularly in the UK if the government extend the £5000 / 20% Plug-In Car grant to vans.
- Charge at work - (I forecast this last year as well but...) - all this talk about public charging and fast charging, when what the market really needs is charging facilities in company car parks. Doh!
- The Renault Zoe will be the breakthrough EV - we will have to wait most of 2012 to see it in the flesh, but the Renault Zoe is in my opinion going to be the electric car that finally drives volume. Expect to see £14000 plus a monthly battery lease and some exciting news about range.
- More mergers, acquisitions, closures - I said that 2011 would see this and with the demise of Aptera I was partly correct. In 2012 I expect to see more of the same in what will be a tough market for most.
- Inductive (wireless) charging will continue to remain a dream - I love the thought of inexpensive electric vehicles with small batteries that do not cost very much, charged inductively as they drive and stand stationary at traffic lights - but for now it will remain just that, a thought. I hope the trials are encouraging however and investments are made in the technology.
- Reva will finally launch the successor to the G-Wiz - actually the media are already reporting that the NXR will be showcased at the Delhi auto Show in India and that the car will be available to buy there in 2012. Better late than never?
- I will buy a Tesla - The Model S looks beautiful...maybe.
My 2011 predictions - the market moved more slowly than I (and most others) thought:
1. Range anxiety comes and goes: the obsession with range anxiety will be overcome first as motorists realise that a range of 100 miles (and 50 miles under extreme conditions) is more than sufficient for everyday use; secondly, as range increases thanks to efficiency improvements and new battery chemistries are announced for future models; and thirdly as recharging infrastructure appears as an extended journey facilitator
2. The second car becomes the first car: for many motorists the EV will become the car of choice for the daily commute, effectively promoting it from second to first position in terms of frequency of use.
3. Range available maps become super-popular: my favourite thing about the Nissan Leaf is its range available map in the centre console. At a glance drivers can see the one way and return distances available to the driver visually mapped, based on the current state of charge. The most useful of tools an EV can offer.
4. Apps for EVs: electric vehicles are made for telematics applications - and vice versa. As motorists interact with their electric car through their mobile devices we will see a step change in the number and type of applications developed for electric vehicles, from service and safety apps to information and entertainment apps. Now if Apple would only launch an EV...
5. Seamless connectivity: not sure of we will see this in 2011 or later but the concept that your connectivity to the world is seamless as you move from home to EV to work place is next up. With 42 million media tablets such as the i-Pad already sold, in-car docking stations for media tablets in EVs should be the next big thing. Always-on never felt so good (or bad).
6. Charge at work: much of the current charging debate is with on-street charging stations but since 80% to 90% of all charging of electric cars will be done at home, the next big need is for charging at the work place. In addition to effectively doubling the daily range available for employees with EVs, charging at work facilities will enable those people who are unable to charge at home (because they live in a flat without dedicated parking) to enter the EV market.
7. Usership instead of ownership: we will see the beginning of the end of the desire to own or lease our cars as the possibility of using them only when we need them (and so not paying for them when we don't) trends beyond car clubs as they exist currently, led by the Paris AutoLib project. 3,000 electric cars stationed at 1,000 self-service hire points across the city and its suburbs.
8. Electric car prototypes will look different, not the same as conventional cars: for the next few years, those who buy an EV are making a big personal social statement - I am a Leader of Change. To make it easily and powerfully they want to stand out from the crowd, not disappear into it.
9. V2G: we will see the first electric vehicles emerge that are Vehicle To Grid enabled, meaning they are capable of returning stored energy to the electric grid. For some this could mean that EVs are effectively free of charge from an operational perspective as they take advantage of generous feed-in tariffs - if you live in the right place.
10. Mergers, acquisitions, closures: as so many EV start-ups have discovered to their cost, it is difficult and expensive to get into automotive manufacturing, particularly if it is with electric vehicles. In an already crowded market place there is room for maybe 2 or 3 new entrants, the rest will either sell, merge, or fade away.
