Tuesday 20 September 2011

The bumpy road to electrification


If only the price was right.
According to Bloomberg Businessweek.com, Nissan has delivered 12,000 Leaf EVs since its introduction in the 8 months since December 2009, Chief Executive Officer Carlos Ghosn said in Frankfurt. PSA Peugeot Citroen, which beat Renault to the market with two electric city cars last December, targeted 7,000 combined deliveries of the iOn and C-Zero models for 2011. It has sold 3,000 since the beginning of the year.
Nissan said last November it planned to sell as many as 25,000 units of the $32,780 Leaf in the U.S. during the model's first year. Until August, U.S. sales of the model totaled just 6,168, although this is in part explained by the tsunami which affected production. In the 'EV ready' UK it is just one tenth of the US total.
The Leaf costs £25,990 ($40,776) in the U.K., even after the deduction of the £5,000-government incentive, while the brand's similarly sized and conventionally powered Note starts at £11,200 . In France, the 5,000-euro government contribution lowers the starting price of Peugeot's iOn to 35,350 euros, compared with 9,700 euros for the petrol burning Peugeot 107.


To get around this problem, Daimler AG plans to follow Renault's lead by initially leasing the batteries with its cars. The electric-powered Smart city car will start at less than 16,000 euros, with the battery costing an additional 60 euros a month. Renault also have plans to lease the batteries separately. 
Ghosn, chief executive officer of both Renault and Nissan, remains bullish. Demand for Nissan's Leaf has outstripped expectations, he said Sept. 12.
“When we first predicted a 10 percent market share, people said we were being extremely optimistic,” the CEO said. “Since then, it's the experts who have increased their forecasts.”
My view: it has always been clear that very few people can or will pay a premium of 100% to 200% for an EV. In an economically challenged market where people are unsure about their jobs and savings, we need to find a bridge from low volume to high volume that will deliver the cost reductions required. Rather than hope that fleets will be the bridge (fleet managers share the same concerns as consumers, although they are better informed about total cost of ownership), manufacturers should a) initially adopt the new EV business model which separates the battery from the rest of the vehicle in order to reduce the purchase price, and remove the risk from the customer. The risk element can be shared with the customer (through pricing), but it is imperative that the barrier to purchase (high price) is removed or at least significantly reduced before the market stalls; and b) introduce sub £10,000 EVs (quadricycles). 
There are simply not enough EVangelists on the road currently. This coupled with misinformed and in some cases deliberately obfuscated reports are not helping the case for EVs. In the absence of government educational support, the market is floundering a little in every country where EVs are available, resulting in slower uptake. 
I hope that Renault will lead the way with this more customer friendly pricing model and with the introduction of the Twizy, affordable EVs. If successful, other manufacturers in the market place will quickly follow.