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| Here comes the electron economy. |
Electric cars should not be judged in isolation as a mobility solution, but as the driver of the solution to the energy security problem, the economic problem and the climate change problem.
1. The Energy Security problem: western economies (I am excluding the Russian Federation) hold about 3% of the world's oil reserves and are dependent on foreign oil for 99% of transport (plus of course some of the energy required by industrial and domestic use for light, heat and power). Most of this oil comes from places that are politically unstable and/or potentially hostile to western interests. The cost of protecting this oil supply is vast. The US alone spends many tens of billions of dollars annually to patrol shipping lanes and defend infrastructure from terrorist attacks and has spent more than $1 trillion on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. (That same money could have launched the renewable energy infrastructure to eliminate oil dependence, and /or subsidised the purchase of at least 50 million electric cars).
2. The Economic problem: western economies are struggling to generate economic growth (jobs and prosperity). In borrowing trillions of dollars to spend on foreign oil rather than spending the money on creating the electron economy (on electricity generated from renewable energy, electric vehicles and the smart grid) they are simply exporting wealth, which means exporting jobs. As James Billmaier reports in 'Jolt! The Impending Dominance of the Electric Car and Why America must Take Charge', the US, the world's biggest oil addict, also subsidises this addiction. Subsidies are taken as tax dollars and paid to the US military to secure the oil supplies, and as federal subsidies to oil companies as R&D and exploration grants. He quotes the US Department of Energy where every $1 billion of the US trade deficit as a result of purchasing imported oil equates to the loss of 27,000 jobs. Looked at another way, if these jobs were recaptured, US unemployment would fall to less than 2% and we would not all be so reliant on China and India in future to fuel the global economy.
The Climate Change problem: the world is warming, caused by man and proven beyond reasonable doubt. The resulting climate shifts are evidenced by the increase in frequency and severity of extreme weather events. We are talking about mitigation as much as prevention and whilst it is not too late to act, it is imperative that we do so now, led by the world's super powers. This affects every one of us, either directly through a threat to life, or indirectly, through higher food and other costs and shortages.
As you will see below, electric cars not only help to address all three of these macro challenges, they will also soon become cheaper to own than their conventional car equivalent. The killer question therefore, 'What's in it for me?' includes the promise of cheaper personal transport within a decade, increased employment and personal wealth, the maintenance of lifestyles and a safer world. If this sounds flaky to you, get over it. It's real and the stakes are high.
For the uninitiated, here's how it works:
- Electric cars are powered by electrons (by electricity) instead of molecules. Electricity can be made from many sources, the cleanest and most sustainable of which are renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and tidal. Even when charged by 'dirty' electricity mixes which include coal, electric cars are cleaner than the cleanest conventional cars, (typically by 50% here in the UK); and as the grid becomes cleaner through increased use of renewables, so electric cars will become cleaner still.
- Electric cars can be charged off-grid as well as from the grid e.g. directly by solar and wind power, which makes their use less vulnerable to terrorist attacks or grid supply issues; and not at all vulnerable to rising oil prices or supply threats.
- Electric cars can be used to store energy and soon, to return energy back to the emerging smart grid. This form of distributed power generation, storage and supply, where electric cars can be charged and energy withdrawals made at times to optimise use of available energy for all and also to reduce the cost to the customer, is the key driver to solving the energy security, economic and environmental problems.
- Electric cars produce no emissions at the point of use and so offer the potential to remove the unpleasantness and health impacts of city pollution forever.
- Electric cars are much quieter than conventional cars. Again, imagine a more peaceful and relaxing urban environment.
- Electric cars are more efficient than conventional cars (in an EV up to 90% of the energy in gasoline is wasted, whereas up to 90% of the energy in electricity is captured).
- Electric cars are cheaper to run than ICE cars. As the price of liquid fuel escalates once again the difference is something like 8 to 9 times as much per mile to run a conventional car. If you could estimate the real cost, including shipping, refining and transporting the crude and refined oil, then the figure is perhaps double this amount. The amount of electricity used to refine crude oil at refineries alone is enough to run electric cars!
- Electric cars are cheaper to maintain than ICE cars. With around 70% fewer parts and less servicing, the electric cars wins hands down. The most expensive item, the battery, will be leased or warranted, thereby protecting the customer.
- Electric cars will come down in purchase price to below that of conventional cars before the end of the decade as volume increases and economies of scale kick in.
- Electric cars are more fun to drive. The power is instantly available, there are no gears and as I mentioned above, they are much quieter.
In conclusion, whilst it is valid to point out the temporary shortcomings of electric cars, it is also prudent for all of us to do so in the context of the greater challenges we collectively face and the current and future advantages of the electric car. The future is electric. Let's embrace this, not delay it.
