Monday 24 January 2011

Prepare for energy rationing?

Still want to buy that big car?
So, the media debate about rationing has started (BBC 21.01.11, Sunday Times 23.01.11). Last week a cross-party group of UK MPs - the All Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil - published a 60 page report calling for the introduction of 'personal energy quotas' as the best way to 'radically and rapidly restructure our society' to deal with 'the reality of diminishing access to energy'.

The group believes that Peak Oil production has occurred and that an energy crisis is inevitable, so we should get a system in place this decade - and the sooner the better they say - so that when the crisis hits we are well down the road of shifting away from fossil fuels to low carbon alternatives. They are not alone in calling for such a scheme, which would also mean strict restrictions on travel within the European Union. Friends of the Earth launched Big Ask Europe, asking Brussels to put in place sweeping controls to reduce carbon emissions by 2020.

The concept proposed is Tradeable Energy Quotas (TEQs). Every adult would be allocated an annual TEQ, comprising energy units based on carbon intensity. One litre of petrol would be 2.3 units, one kWh of household electricity would be 0.2 units. 40% of the total allocation would be allocated to individuals free of charge, the remaining 60% would be sold to businesses, industry and government, with the proceeds being used to accelerate the transition to the electron economy. Individuals wanting additional TEQs would buy permits. Each year the total pool would shrink in line with the government's carbon emission targets, for the UK this is 80% reduction by 2050.

If you doubt that this will happen, get this: last week BP predicted that demand for oil will increase by 20% by 2030 to 102m barrels / day. Sure there is much uncertainty about remaining deposits of oil (and gas and coal are plentiful), but the price of a barrel of crude oil has again almost reached $100 a barrel even as western economists once again talk of a possible double dip recession. The warning signs are there, even if the timing cannot be forecast.