Forbes.com: Electric car sales charged ahead in 2014 in Western Europe thanks to early adopters and buyers in Norway, but may well have peaked for a while as gasoline prices fall and ordinary consumers shun them.
This doesn’t augur well for manufacturers who have bet the ranch on electric cars becoming ubiquitous, like the Franco-Japanese partners Renault Nissan.
According to exclusive figures from European newsletter Automotive Industry Data (AID), sales in Western Europe jumped a healthy-looking 51.7 per cent in 2014 to 58,582. This resulted in a market share of 0.49 per cent.
In the U.S. last year, electric car sales, including theChevrolet Volt, were 82,130, resulting in a near identical market share of 0.50 per cent.
But AID editor Peter Schmidt said sales in Western Europe are likely to peak at around this level for maybe five more years.
“Effectively, you have no detectable, genuine underlying consumer demand from private individuals. To make things worse, looking ahead at the next couple of years, I would say this is a scary time for electric car makers, chiefly because as the price of oil continues to hover around levels inconceivable a year ago and with fuel prices falling month by month, those people who had thought about buying an electric car may give up when they look at motoring expenses,” Schmidt said in an interview.
AID’s data includes battery-only electric sedans like the Renault Zoe and Nissan Leaf, plus the BMW i3 city car which has a gasoline-engine range extender, and the little Volkswagen E-Up and Volkswagen E-Golf sedan. Also included are the Opel-Vauxhall Ampera and Chevrolet Volt, which are so-called range-extended electric vehicles made by GM.
AID figures show the Nissan Leaf was the top seller in Western Europe last year at 14,354, the Renault Zoe second at 10,885 followed by the Tesla Model S at 8,698. BMW sold 8,290 i3s, with the VW E-Up and E-Golf jointly selling 8,461.
These sales are pitifully small compared with the ambitions expressed by electric car proselytizers. Renault-Nissan for years said by 2020 global electric car sales would claim 10 per cent of the market. That’s now been rescinded.
“The market appears to be going nowhere, absolutely nowhere. The numbers for 2014 look healthy but they are not. When any new models come on to the market there’s initial fast growth. That’s the same for conventional or hybrid or electric. Effectively, you have no detectable genuine underlining consumer demand from private individuals with Norway the only exception,” Schmidt said. [Note: in 2017 at least 3 new models will come to market with 200 mile range, more than double the current range of all EVs except Tesla's]
Oil rich, socialist Norway has designed special tax concessions to make electric cars attractive compared with internal combustion engine vehicles. Consequently Norway was the biggest market in Western Europe last year for electric cars with sales more than doubling to 18,090 and a market share of 12.5 per cent.
But for the rest of Western Europe, which includes all the big markets like Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Spain, electric car demand is likely to stagnate. [Note: UK EV sales increased >400% in 2014, France is increasing EV subsidies and most markets are investing heavily in charging networks, so this is a pretty big assumption]
This looks bad for the manufacturers, which having invested heavily, and can’t just switch off production. For instance, Renault pledged to spend $5.8 billion building electric-only vehicles to meet its global target of 10 per cent by 2020.
“Assuming that fuel prices may not bounce back to $100 (a barrel) level next year but could hover around current levels for next five years or so – the electric car industry cannot stop producing them, can’t mothball them – has to keep production ticking over ,” Schmidt said.
“There’s tangible evidence above all in the U.S. market, that sudden cheap fuel has tempted a rethink among the American car buying public that will hold back the electric car market by half a decade,” he said.
Schmidt said this means huge financial losses for the likes of Renault Nissan, which can ill afford it. BMW and VW’s forays are more affordable.
This doesn’t augur well for manufacturers who have bet the ranch on electric cars becoming ubiquitous, like the Franco-Japanese partners Renault Nissan.
According to exclusive figures from European newsletter Automotive Industry Data (AID), sales in Western Europe jumped a healthy-looking 51.7 per cent in 2014 to 58,582. This resulted in a market share of 0.49 per cent.
In the U.S. last year, electric car sales, including theChevrolet Volt, were 82,130, resulting in a near identical market share of 0.50 per cent.
But AID editor Peter Schmidt said sales in Western Europe are likely to peak at around this level for maybe five more years.
“Effectively, you have no detectable, genuine underlying consumer demand from private individuals. To make things worse, looking ahead at the next couple of years, I would say this is a scary time for electric car makers, chiefly because as the price of oil continues to hover around levels inconceivable a year ago and with fuel prices falling month by month, those people who had thought about buying an electric car may give up when they look at motoring expenses,” Schmidt said in an interview.
AID’s data includes battery-only electric sedans like the Renault Zoe and Nissan Leaf, plus the BMW i3 city car which has a gasoline-engine range extender, and the little Volkswagen E-Up and Volkswagen E-Golf sedan. Also included are the Opel-Vauxhall Ampera and Chevrolet Volt, which are so-called range-extended electric vehicles made by GM.
AID figures show the Nissan Leaf was the top seller in Western Europe last year at 14,354, the Renault Zoe second at 10,885 followed by the Tesla Model S at 8,698. BMW sold 8,290 i3s, with the VW E-Up and E-Golf jointly selling 8,461.
These sales are pitifully small compared with the ambitions expressed by electric car proselytizers. Renault-Nissan for years said by 2020 global electric car sales would claim 10 per cent of the market. That’s now been rescinded.
“The market appears to be going nowhere, absolutely nowhere. The numbers for 2014 look healthy but they are not. When any new models come on to the market there’s initial fast growth. That’s the same for conventional or hybrid or electric. Effectively, you have no detectable genuine underlining consumer demand from private individuals with Norway the only exception,” Schmidt said. [Note: in 2017 at least 3 new models will come to market with 200 mile range, more than double the current range of all EVs except Tesla's]
Oil rich, socialist Norway has designed special tax concessions to make electric cars attractive compared with internal combustion engine vehicles. Consequently Norway was the biggest market in Western Europe last year for electric cars with sales more than doubling to 18,090 and a market share of 12.5 per cent.
But for the rest of Western Europe, which includes all the big markets like Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Spain, electric car demand is likely to stagnate. [Note: UK EV sales increased >400% in 2014, France is increasing EV subsidies and most markets are investing heavily in charging networks, so this is a pretty big assumption]
This looks bad for the manufacturers, which having invested heavily, and can’t just switch off production. For instance, Renault pledged to spend $5.8 billion building electric-only vehicles to meet its global target of 10 per cent by 2020.
“Assuming that fuel prices may not bounce back to $100 (a barrel) level next year but could hover around current levels for next five years or so – the electric car industry cannot stop producing them, can’t mothball them – has to keep production ticking over ,” Schmidt said.
“There’s tangible evidence above all in the U.S. market, that sudden cheap fuel has tempted a rethink among the American car buying public that will hold back the electric car market by half a decade,” he said.
Schmidt said this means huge financial losses for the likes of Renault Nissan, which can ill afford it. BMW and VW’s forays are more affordable.
[Note: this is yet another speculative naysayer report that ignores legislative pressures on manufacturers to reduce emissions, improve air quality and decarbonise transport. With regard to targets, they were bold statements of intent by governments designed to help kickstart emissions reduction, investment and sales of zero emissions vehicles, rather than deliverable promises. Change takes a while to get going.]
