EVs 2020: 5% or 50% share?

Here we go again with more forecasts for the share of market that electric vehicles will have by 2020.

In the blue corner is Shai Agassi of Better Place, who claims that EVs will account for 50% of all new car sales by 2020. His view is that the demand for oil is increasing fast whilst supply is flat, meaning that the price of oil will become too high and potentially the supply too limited, for petrol (gasoline) fuelled cars to survive.

In the red corner is BCG (Boston Consulting Group), who are of the opinion that in the US EVs will have less than 5% share of new car sales and in Europe less than 12%. BCG believe that improvements in ICE technology will mean that petrol engines will become 40% cleaner by 2020 and capable of significant efficiency gains, whilst maintaining a price advantage over battery powered vehicles.

My view: the drivers of the market have not changed. Oil will become too expensive, energy security too big an issue, climate change too imminent a threat, and, we remain at risk of a Black Swan event.

Besides, EVs are just cooler and much more fun to drive.