Assuming for now that all sector reductions are to be equal, in the case of cars driven in the UK this means a move from 146g CO2 / km to 30g CO2 / km.
Is this achievable?
Today, the more efficient electric cars available to buy now in the UK emit approximately 50g co2 / km depending on the fuel mix at the time of charging (based on power station emissions, the cars themselves are emission free of course). The same cars driven in Iceland, Norway or France already deliver emissions well below the required UK 30% figure, thanks to the very high percentage of electricity generated from renewable or (in France's case) nuclear energy sources.
Clearly the target can be achieved then using existing EV technologies, what is needed is the political will and levers to force through a move to electricity generated from renewable and nuclear sources. Here in the UK nuclear is required in order to avoid energy shortages as we develop more efficient renewable technologies and implement renewables on the scale required. I don't like nuclear either, but I like the thought of power outs even less.
As regular readers of this blog are aware, I am in favour of a focus on pure electric vehicles rather than a broad spread of technologies that include the retention of the internal combustion engine. Simply put, ICE vehicles prolong our dependence on oil and I am not a fan of the 'bridge to pure electric' theory.
I am increasingly concerned that we are simply going to run out of time if we allow ourselves to develop 'faster horses' instead of putting more efforts into developing more efficient pure electric vehicles. Politically we continue to demonstrate a lack of willpower to take the really difficult environmental decisions whilst anyone who is not unnerved by the possibilities unravelling in North Africa and the Middle East has their head in the oil sands.
Meanwhile the Volvo V60 diesel-electric hybrid to be officially unveiled at next week's Geneva Salon International de l'Auto, offers a quite remarkable 50g CO2 / km, 124 MPGe and a range of 745 miles in hybrid mode. Clearly there are some brilliant automotive engineers out there and automakers can move quickly and produce impressive results when driven by legislators and the sniff of a new market. By all accounts the Volvo is a remarkable car and deserves all the praise it is about to receive. But, even though you can drive 'up to' 30 miles in pure electric mode, you will still have to hope that Gaddafi's foreign legions haven't been paid to blow up the Libyan oil fields and pipelines in an 'If-I-can't-have-it-then-neither-can-you' fit of pique and that next time you pull up to the gas station it is still open for business. The world record price for a barrel of oil was $147 in July 2008, we are currently heading north of $120 and analysts warn of $220 if Libyan oil production is halted.
I can't help feeling uneasy every time the focus shifts away from total oil independence.
